The fertility rate can't be fixed

I’ve read with great interest theories on the collapsing birthrate — it’s the Rorschach test of our times. The manosphere blames equity: that allowing women in the workforce suppressed the wages of men and raised women’s standards, narrowing the field of men seen as possible partners. Feminists blame men who expect women to work and contribute to household expenses but also take on the bulk of childcare and household chores. Leftists don’t see the low birth rate as a problem — first world children create disproportional amounts of carbon emissions and they’re more than happy to welcome the global south to developed countries via immigration (legal or otherwise). Conservatives blame feminism and prefer to retvrn to an idealized world when women were financially dependent on men so they have no option but to be wives and mothers instead of career women.

While all of these have contributed, my view is less contentious, less “battle of the sexes” and has a few interlocking parts. Unfortunately, if I’m right, there’s no realistic path back to a higher fertility rate. My explanation also accounts for why the birth rate is collapsing faster in developed/high income countries.

The world is entertaining.

In a first world country, the standard of living is high and the poor live in unimaginable luxury compared with even the wealthy throughout most of human history. Everyone can get a smartphone and internet and have an infinite scroll of TikTok dance videos, porn, anything their heart desires any time of the night or day. International travel is more accessible than ever before. Want to spend the rest of your life playing video games? It’s easy to immerse yourself and never emerge. Anyone can eat at a Michelin starred restaurant. Just 50 years ago, what was there for entertainment? Television, radio, books. The local bar. Going to the movies. Sure, you can argue that none of this is as fulfilling in the long run as having children, but most people don’t have the discipline or attention span to speculate about relative fulfillment. They want to do what’s fun right now.

Becoming a parent means your life is no longer your own. Did you want to sleep in on a lazy Sunday? Travel on a whim? Throw a dinner party? Read in a quiet house? Do you value peace at all? Too bad. Too bad for years.

Sex is decoupled from reproduction.

Given that we are a sexually reproducing species, we have evolved in such a way that sex feels good and we’re driven to seek it. We did not evolve to want to be parents. Becoming parents was the natural consequence of doing what felt good, what our urges made us do. This explains why those who don’t have the technology or the intelligence/foresight to do family planning still have higher fertility rates.

There is no realistic way to reverse this: now that we have contraception and understand how utterly life-changing it is to have children in a developed country, the new normal is for people to do cost-benefit analyses on having kids. It should be unsurprising that birth rate is falling: it’s hard to see much upside before experiencing parenthood. Sometimes, it’s hard even then.

Cultural norms around sex have changed.

Related to the above point, when sex was regulated by cultural institutions like the church, the norm (or at least the goal) was that no one had sex until they were married, and once married the encouraged course of action was having as many children as possible. Be fruitful and multiply.

Though the U.S. is increasing secular, religious communities that maintain strict expectations regarding sex outside of marriage continue to have high fertility rates, like the Mormons. This change in norms is unlikely to revert — we are becoming less religious and broader culture has no enforcement mechanism to dissuade people from decoupling sex from reproduction. But even if we did manage to convert everyone to Mormonism, their birthrate is also falling.

Parenting is costly.

Yes, it seems that I’m contradicting my first point where I argued that we live in luxury compared to most humans before us. But it doesn’t. In addition to costs like childcare (necessary for most, as two income households are now the norm), children require a lot of attention. When there are so many other amusements, it should not be surprising that people increasingly don’t want to spend time listening to a baby scream or watching Frozen for the 1000th time with a toddler.

Also, parents want to give their children everything and in developed countries, that feels like an enormous burden. A home in the safest neighborhood, daycare, the best schools, ballet lessons, summer camps, tutors, college — that all comes at a cost.

This point also seems to go against the fact that poorer people and poorer countries have higher fertility rates. Again, it doesn’t. Those higher rates can be attributed to lack of planning and/or birth control.

Unclear upside.

People without children know exactly what it’s like to be annoyed by a child. Almost everyone has been exposed to a tantrum over Oreos at the grocery store, an inconsolable baby on an overseas flight or a screeching toddler in a restaurant. The parts that make parenting worthwhile are harder to see: they’re quiet, tender moments that unfurl in private.

While hardships of parenting are frequently discussed in concrete detail (sleep deprivation, constant mess, sickness from daycare, terrible twos, hormonal teens, etc), the fulfillment is harder to describe. You’ll hear such vagueness from parents that it can sound like cope: “It’s the best thing I’ve ever done!” Or “It’s given my life new meaning.”

With large families becoming rare, fewer people experience caring for younger siblings and watching their personalities develop. Fewer children in cities means fewer people even have friends with children. These adults have a hard time imagining why they’d want to add a child to the household, so they simply don’t.

Where do we go from here?

Honestly, I don’t know and it appears that no one really does. What seems clear is that going childless is primarily an issue of motivation. Increasingly, people just don’t feel like having kids anymore, and they’ll cast about for any plausible-sounding explanation when pressed to explain why.

Many countries have tried and failed to produce a significant and lasting change in their birthrates. Policy makers must recognize and plan for a future where fertility rates are not above replacement. In particular, they will have to stop assuming an ever-growing population to help fund Medicare and Social Security. Importing the third world isn’t a sustainable solution either. Maybe this is the bright side of AI/automation: fewer people will be necessary to keep the economy running.

Perhaps I’ll write on this again if and when I have ideas about increasing the motivation to procreate. Until then, feel free to share your ideas on this trend, what we can do to reverse it, or whether we even want to.