Transgender Women in Sports

A recent poll by the NY Post found that 79% of respondents think transgender female athletes (defined as people who were “male at birth but who currently identify as female”) should not be allowed to compete in women’s sports. This includes 67% of respondents who are Democrats and 94% of Republicans. This issue is apparently causing somewhat of a rift within the trans community, with more practical voices pointing out that it’s an 80/20 issue which doesn’t affect many trans people — so why not compromise or at least find a way to convince opponents? Hardliners view inclusion in sports as a matter of civil rights and fear that any recognition of differences between trans women and women will make it easier to exclude them from other spaces.

What stands out to me about this discussion is how strongly people feel, even though it affects just a handful of women. How many competitive trans athletes are there at the professional level? One statistic from a UN report estimates that nearly 900 medals were “lost” to transgender athletes. This is a worldwide figure and represents around 600 female athletes. 600 women worldwide were affected by transgender athletes in sports.

Meantime, the female population of just the United States is 168 million and all will use a public restroom at some point. How much does the public care about the risk to regular women in public bathrooms? Just 50% of respondents in a 2024 YouGov poll believe transgender people should be required to use bathrooms that correspond to their sex at birth.

That a greater proportion of Americans care about transgender women in women’s sports than in women’s bathrooms indicates that their main concern isn’t women’s safety. Transgender athletes do not pose any involuntary risk of physical harm to women: women may choose to opt out of competing at any time. Allowing trans women in women’s bathrooms gives cover to any man who wants to enter — how will you keep him out when all he has to do is say the words “I identify as a woman”? Sex-segregated intimate spaces exist for a reason and that reason doesn’t disappear when men with bad intentions are willing to claim that they’re women.

Then, what is the concern about trans athletes in sports? Fairness? Sure, but you can make the same argument about anyone who is born with more natural talent, higher testosterone levels, a body composition that’s better aligned with the sport, or even just more grit or wealthier parents and more time to practice. Everything is, in some sense, “unfair” — like Michael Phelps’ wingspan. Or the fact that about 97% of top runners are black.

Moderate voices in the trans community have a point when they say that vanishingly few trans women even want to compete in sports. That in fact, most trans women would experience gender dysphoria if they did, since their bodies and performance would contrast so starkly with the other competitors. But I also understand why giving in on this issue feels like admitting something they don’t want to admit: that there is a difference between trans women and women.

Benefit to Women

I think the “it affects so few” argument works for both sides. In fact, I see a silver lining in allowing trans athletes to compete in women’s sports.

Very few women get good ROI out of pursuing sports as more than a hobby. Women’s sports aren’t particularly lucrative, even at the professional level (compare male vs female salaries of professional soccer or basketball players). Women’s college sports aren’t usually profitable for colleges either — sports scholarships for women exist because Title IX mandates that colleges provide “equal opportunities for female students to participate in sports” in order to qualify for federal funding. Perhaps the best hope for profit is from sponsorships — but in that case, why not just be a social media influencer? The average woman considering a career in professional sports will probably achieve better ROI doing makeup tutorials or haul videos on social media.

If transgender athletes make girls and women more realistic about whether they can be competitive at the highest levels, that benefits all women who would otherwise waste the effort (countless hours of practice), yet never make it to the podium or the professional level. Professional sports offer little to society aside from entertainment. How much human capital could be freed if fewer women participate in sports and pursued something useful instead?

My Recommendation