Target Demographics of Lowell High

Should we expect it to match SFUSD?

Lowell High’s merit-based admissions policy has been called “segregationist” by its detractors. They insist Lowell is not “diverse” enough, that African American and Hispanic students are “underrepresented.” When pressed to explain the benchmark they’re using to make this claim, they point to the demographics of SFUSD, and say that Lowell “does not reflect the diversity of the district.” But why should it? Should students be admitted at random, without regard to academic proficiency? Here, I argue why that should not be the case.

Why might the demographic composition of Lowell be different from that of SFUSD? One explanation is that SFUSD has the largest achievement gap of any district in California.

What is the “correct” racial distribution of Lowell High?

I would like to carefully set out a few statements I hope we can all agree with to begin the discussion. (See footnotes if you need convincing.)

(1) Race is not an academic qualification¹

(2) A school with a challenging academic program should admit students based on academic qualifications²

(3) The SBAC is the best tool SFUSD has for evaluating academic proficiency in a standardized, objective, cost-effective way³

(4) Rather than enrolling academically unprepared students at a school like Lowell High, the ideal admissions process would place them at a school better suited to their needs⁴

Since Lowell is a school for students who need an accelerated learning environment and challenging coursework, the minimum bar for entry should be demonstrating proficiency by meeting or exceeding grade-level standards on the SBAC tests. These state-mandated exams are given to all public school students and 7th grade SBAC scores are used to evaluate students for admission to Lowell High. Our benchmark for demographics should be the set of students who pass their SBACs (henceforth, “proficient students”).

The SBACs are not challenging tests: they evaluate whether a student is able to read, write and do math at grade level. Before we resort to that predictable refrain “but the test is racist,” here’s an example from a practice 7th grade math SBAC test:

“Jenny has $25 and she earns $10 for each lawn that she mows. Jenny wants to buy a concert ticket that costs $65. Enter the minimum number of lawns Jenny needs to mow to be able to buy the concert ticket.”

Reasonable minds can agree that melanin has no bearing on a student’s ability to answer questions like the above.

How should we admit students to Lowell High?

Since we agree with (1)-(4) above, we should only admit proficient students. A student who is unable to pass their SBACs is not qualified because they have not mastered all the skills of their current grade level, and are therefore unlikely to find academic success at Lowell High.

Should the demographics of Lowell match the demographics of SFUSD?

Different racial groups within SFUSD do not have the same rates of proficiency. We should expect racial groups with a higher proportion of proficient students to be better represented at Lowell High.

Looking at the 2018-2019 school year (to avoid COVID-19 related disruptions affecting our analysis), we can calculate the demographics of the set of proficient students using district enrollment data and state data on SBAC performance for SFUSD 7th graders⁵. We can compare the demographics of the proficient students to the current demographics at Lowell High from the 2020-2021 School Plan for Student Achievement.

Who is underrepresented under lottery admissions?

Now that we have a better benchmark than SFUSD demographics, we can thoughtfully answer the question of which racial groups are underrepresented at Lowell High. While Asian students represented 52.27% of proficient SFUSD students, they made up only 47% of 10-12th graders at Lowell High, and just 38% of lottery freshmen. That means they are underrepresented by 27.3%. Similarly, white students are underrepresented by 30.9%. Meanwhile, African American students are overrepresented by 263%, and Hispanic students by 180%.

We see from the chart that African American and Hispanic students were correctly represented based on the benchmark of proficient students. We also see that the lottery admitted African American and Hispanic students at rates wildly out of proportion to the number of proficient students, at the expense of white and Asian students.

Conclusions

Considering proficiency gives us a new perspective that contradicts the common narrative regarding underrepresentation of certain racial groups at Lowell High. Once we factor in academic qualifications, we find that:

- African American and Hispanic students were correctly represented
- White and Asian students are the most underrepresented groups

This analysis can also help explain why the demographics of Lowell High before the lottery looked the way they did. Would a student who knows they aren’t proficient feel up for the challenge of Lowell High? Would it benefit them to enroll? We are seeing concerning levels of D and F grades in the lottery freshmen, and in those groups that are overrepresented under the proficiency benchmark. Perhaps we are giving students and their families too little credit — those who aren’t proficient can see that Lowell is not a good fit, and we shouldn’t patronize them by pushing them to attend.

1. If the goal is to admit students who are academically qualified, the admissions policy should not be amended with the goal of favoring or disfavoring any student on the basis of race. To do so would constitute racial balancing, which is illegal under federal law.

2. Students who don’t have the prerequisites for a challenging academic program will be unable to catch up to their peers, leading to stress, feelings of exclusion, poor mental health, poor academic outcomes, and even dropouts. For example, many of the complaints about racism at Lowell are actually about asking for extra help and not liking the peer response.

3. Other criteria used in admissions include grades, essays, principal recommendations and “committee assessment” (which involves awarding entry points for factors unrelated to academic performance like “extenuating circumstances” or “athletics”). None of these are as objective or predictive of student performance as the SBACs. All of these are more gameable by those with wealth and connections than the SBACs.

4. Lowell now receives the lowest per pupil funding of any SFUSD high school, and does not have the resources (such as Spark funding) given to other schools to help with tutoring and remedial learning needs.

5. Since data on students who passed both SBAC exams is not available, I used the lower of the two pass rates. That is the maximum percentage of students who could have passed both exams.